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Prediction for CME (2024-10-24T03:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-24T03:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34152/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is an X3.3 flare starting at 2024-10-24T03:30Z from AR 3869 (approx. S17E68). Brightening and post eruptive arcades are observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/335, EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines are best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is also seen from STEREO A EUV 195/304. Arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 15nt to 22nt. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed was observed from 385 km/s to 511 km/s at 16:09Z, with an increase in temperature observed as well. The signature was preceded by a prior enhancement in solar wind parameters, most notably magnetic field components, associated with IPS: 2024-10-26T11:35Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-26T15:34Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-26T07:00Z (-7.0h, +10.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-10-24T06:50Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1383
Longitude (deg): E44
Latitude (deg): S22
Half-angular width (deg): 55

Notes: Moderate confidence fit, but adjusted for more 'front-sided ejecta'
Space weather advisor: CL

Lead Time: 46.87 hour(s)
Difference: 8.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-10-24T16:42Z

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